The Wacky Letter Version of an Arms Race?

Does anybody else find this to be as irritating as I do?  At websites like Ticketmaster and other online ticket sellers, you are required to perform a "word verification" procedure with "words" written in such wacky "letters" that it makes the "word" virtually unreadable, like in the examples above.  It sometimes takes three or four attempts for me to type a "word" correctly, and even then it seems like I am mostly just guessing, as if there might actually be multiple acceptable "words." 

There's actually a more technical term for trying to read unreadable wacky letters, it's called CAPTCHA (Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart) which is "a type of challenge-response test used in computing as an attempt to ensure that the response is generated by a person."

The "wacky word" verification known as CAPTCHA is therefore an attempt to stop ticket purchases using "ticket bot software" and verify that it's an actual person buying the ticket.  However, ticket software companies like TicketBots (available here for $990) claim their products have a "CAPTCHA bypass" feature to somehow get around the word verification requirement.  

So it must be like a "wacky letter" version of an "arms race," where Ticketmaster and other online ticket sellers try to stay one step ahead of the "CAPTCHA bypass" features of the bot software by making the letters wackier and wackier to the point that they are now mostly  unreadable?  And if the "CAPTCHA bypass" features of the bot software actually work, it appears that the bot software is winning the "wacky letter race."     

Comments welcome.   

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Economics Blogosphere Transitions

1. In a post titled "My Last Post," blogging pioneer Arnold Kling announced yesterday that after blogging for more than ten years about economics at EconLog, he has stopped blogging and will switch to "writing in essay format."  

Arnold was one of the first economists to use the Internet for writing about economics starting back in December 1997.  Arnold started blogging on a regular basis in January 2002 when his blog was called Great Questions of Economics.  That would have been more than a year and a-half before the legendary economics blog Marginal Revolution started in August 2003 (according the MR archives).  Here's Arnold's first blog post on January 5, 2002 titled Science and Markets, and another one from January 2002 titled "Crony Capitalism."

By 2003, Arnold's website was called EconLog. From a January 2003 post titled "The Economics of Web Logs," Arnold wrote that "EconLog should be most helpful to others who share my interest in teaching economics and observing the use of economics in everyday issues of individual choice and public policy."

Arnold was later joined in 2005 by George Mason economist Bryan Caplan and in 2008 by economist David Henderson.  While economic blogs now are commonplace, they were in their infancy when Arnold started blogging more than a decade ago back in 2002, and we owe him greatly for paving the way for economics to be shared, taught and discussed using the Internet. 

In a testament to Arnold's influence, effectiveness, and popularity as an economist and blogger, read the many complimentary and positive comments that are pouring in below Arnold's last post from dozens of his fans.  Don Boudreaux comments that this is the "first bit of compelling evidence that I've encountered in favor of the great-stagnation thesis."  That statement pretty much sums it all up! Thanks to veteran blogger Arnold Kling for sharing his economic expertise, wisdom and insights with us for more than ten years in the blogosphere.

2. Hudson Institute economist Tim Kane and economist and Columbia Business School Dean Glenn Hubbard have recently launched Balanceofeconomics.com, a blog about America, world history, and the concept of economic power.

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Car Sales in August Could Reach 4.5 Year High

Based on new vehicle sales during the first 16 selling days of this month, J.D. Power and Associates is predicting sales during the full month of August to increase by 20% over last year and reach the highest monthly sales of new vehicles since early 2008, more than four and one-half years ago.  Here's from the company's press release today:

The August new-vehicle selling rate is expected to be the highest monthly rate in more than four and one-half years, according to a monthly sales forecast developed by J.D. Power and Associates' Power Information Network and LMC Automotive.

August new-vehicle retail sales are projected to come in at 1,066,200 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.3 million units (see chart above). The year-over-year growth rate in retail sales continues a double-digit trend for a fourth consecutive month. Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

"August continues this summer's trend of healthy growth in retail sales as dealers work to sell down inventory in time to make room for 2013 models," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "To date, automakers have been diligent in better balancing production with demand, which has been critical to the improved financial performance for many brands.  Going forward, this discipline will be tested as demand looks to cool somewhat through the balance of the year."

MP: The expected strength in new vehicle sales this month is consistent with the facts that: a) rail shipments of motor vehicles year-to-date through mid-August are running 21% above last year, and b) motor vehicle assemblies in July of this year reached a five-year high of more than 11 million units at an annual rate, the highest since June 2007.  Despite the ongoing weaknesses in the labor market and an 8.3% jobless rate, we've been seeing offsetting strengths in new vehicle sales all year and now recently strengths developing in the U.S. housing market.  If new vehicles sales in August do come in at a four and a-half year high, it would be one more reason to doubt that the U.S. economy will fall into another recession this year.  

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July Shipments of Durable Goods Set New Record

The Census Bureau reported today that both: a) new orders and b) actual shipments of manufactured durable goods showed strong monthly gains in July, increasing by 4.2% and 2.6% respectively compared to June.  New orders were boosted by strong demand for civilian aircraft in July, including an order for 260 airplanes from Boeing. On a year-to-date basis, durable goods orders are up 8.9% and shipments are up 7.5% from a year ago. 

New orders for durable manufactured goods in July, at $230.73 billion, were at the highest monthly level since February 2008, more than four years ago (blue line in chart).  Actual shipments of manufactured durable goods (electrical equipment, computers, appliances, cars, aircraft, machinery, fabricated metal products, transportation equipment) have increased in seven of the last eight months and reached a new record high of $231 billion in July (red line in chart).   

In news reports, some concern was expressed by the 3.4% decline in July orders for "non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft," following a 2.7% decline in June, because those orders are considered to be a measure of planned business spending.  However on a year-to-date basis through July, those orders are 3.6% above the same period last year.  Further, those orders of about $61.6 billion in July represent only about one-quarter (27%) of the total durable goods orders in July of $231 billion.    

Bottom Line: Today's report on the strong monthly and annual increases in both new orders and actual shipments of durable factory goods strengthens the case that American manufacturing continues to be one of the strongest sectors and main drivers of the economic recovery.  In addition to strong gains in manufacturing output reflected in today's Census report, the 524,000 jobs added to factory payrolls since 2010 represent more than 13% of the total increase in payroll jobs during that period, even though manufacturing jobs represent fewer than 9% of the total payroll jobs in the economy.  For both gains in output and gains in employment over the last few years, the manufacturing sector is leading the rest of the U.S. economy.  

Related: See Business Insider's chart below and article "America's Manufacturing Industry Is The Envy Of The World Right Now."

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When I Grow Up, I Want to Be a Crony

The path to success in America used to be the private sector, but what are our children learning today?  
From the Crony Chronicles, the "cronyism resource." After all, why be a taxpayer, when you could be a tax spender?

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2012 Drug War Killings Reach 45 This Week

The organization StoptheDrugWar.com tracks the number of Americans each year who are casualties of America's War on Drugs Peaceful Americans Who Use Intoxicants Not Currently Approved of by the Government, Who Might Break Into Your House and Kill You While Executing a Search Warrant if They Suspect You of Possessing or Distributing a Weed That Grows Naturally Everywhere and Was Smoked Regularly by President Obama. 

That's basically what happened to Wendell Allen, 20, of New Orleans, who was a small-time distributor of marijuana and was shot and killed during a drug raid in March by a police officer who was indicted this week on manslaughter charges.  Wendell Allen was unarmed and became this year's Drug War Casualty No. 15. 

More recently, an Iowa City man was shot and killed during an undercover drug operation this week, bringing the total number of Drug War Killings this year to 45.

Related: Roughly 48% of the inmates in federal prisons (almost 93,000) are serving jail sentences for drug offenses.  

HT: Jacob Sullum

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CO2 Emissions at a 20-Year Low, Oceans of Natural Gas, Romney v. Obama, $1T Capex in 2012

Energy updates:

1. Investor's Business Daily ran an excellent editorial a few days ago on the "shockingly good news" that carbon emissions are now the lowest in 20 years, going all the way back to 1992 (see chart above, EIA data here), here's a slice:

"Carbon emissions in the U.S. have hit a 20-year low due to a supposedly environmentally unfriendly drilling technique that has created an abundance of cheap natural gas. The free market, it seems, does it better than the EPA."

"Environmentalists find themselves between shale rock and a hard place after a little noticed technical report documented how the natural gas boom caused by the use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has actually helped the environment in a major way while also creating jobs and economic growth."

"In the report, the U.S. Energy Information Agency, a part of the Energy Department, said that energy-related U.S. CO2 emissions for the first four months of this year fell to about 1992 levels. EIA estimates that full-year emissions will be the lowest since at least 1995. The untold story is that this has been achieved by the free market and private-sector technology, not government mandates."

"How ironic that those greedy energy companies and not government-backed green energy failures such as Solyndra and the Chevy Volt are both saving the earth and paving the way to genuine energy independence. Fracking will save the earth before anything like cap-and-trade or the Kyoto Protocol — an inconvenient truth indeed for environmentalists."

2. Robert Lenzner at Forbes summarizes the Top Ten Reasons to Love Natural Gas, here's the opening paragraph:

"Here is the most promising development in the American economy. Period! The discovery of oceans of natural gas in North America means a vastly cheaper source of energy, the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs, a meaningful reduction in global warming, a much diminished balance of payments deficit, a far stronger dollar, a jump in the profits of the electric utilities, who will then raise their cash dividend payouts, which will benefit widows and orphans as well as giant pension funds, and cause the gold bugs lasting anguish."

3.  My AEI colleagues Ken Green and Elizabeth DeMeo help us understand how the energy platforms of Obama and Romney are different, here's the bottom line:

"In reviewing the energy policy platforms of Romney and Obama, we see that Obama shows a distinct preference for a command-driven energy economy, while Romney strongly favors a freer, private-sector energy economy. Obama places far less emphasis on energy affordability and far more emphasis on greening the energy supply even though that raises costs. Finally, whereas Romney clearly has a goal of energy interdependence with Canada, Obama’s view of energy independence is more a “go it alone” approach, where pipelines to Canada need not apply."

4. Global oil and gas capital expenditures will break the $1 trillion barrier, according to a new report from natural resources experts Global Data, here's an excerpt:

"Increased activity in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector will push oil and gas capital expenditure (capex) to an enormous $1,039 billion for 2012. We estimate that total oil and gas capex will increase 13.4% this year over the 2011 total of $916 billion, as oil companies intensify upstream operations across locations as diverse as offshore Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and the Arctic Circle."
 

"Investor confidence in new upstream projects is being driven by the increasing number of oil and gas discoveries (242 last year alone), combined with consistently high oil prices and the arrival of new technologies that are giving the major firms access to deep offshore reserves that were previously technically and financially unviable."

"North America is expected to witness the highest capex, with $254 billion, or 24.5% of the 2012 global total. Compared to a global average capex growth rate of 13.4%, North America is expected to see growth of 15.7%. The increase of unconventional oil and gas activities, especially the continuing exploitation of shale oil and gas sites and the development of Canadian oil sands, are the major drivers for these investments."

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