Thursday Energy Links

1. Pennsylvania's electric generation rates are back to 1996 levels, thanks to competition and shale gas, according to John Hanger. 

2. According to this IEA report on North American Tight Oil Breakeven prices, oil would have to fall below $44 per barrel before Bakken shale oil would become unprofitable, and below $50 per barrel before Eagle Ford shale oil would be unprofitable (see chart above).

3.  From Investor's Business Daily: "After decades of rising prices, hostile foreign suppliers and warnings that Americans will have to bicycle to work, the world faces the possibility of vast amounts of cheap, plentiful fuel. And the source for much of this new supply? The U.S.

"If this is true, this could be another dominant American century," said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, money managers in Wheaton, Ill.

U.S. natural-gas production is growing 4% to 5% a year, driven by sharply higher shale gas output. Shale gas production is forecast at 7.609 trillion cubic feet this year, up 11.6% from 2011 and 12 times the 2004 level (see chart above for the shale gas production forecast to 2035).

Citigroup predicts the U.S. will be not just self-sufficient but also a huge exporter of oil and gas by 2020. The bank projects that the surge in domestic oil and gas supply will add 2% to 3% in real GDP, create 2.7 million to 3.6 million new jobs and cut the current account deficit by 2.4% of GDP.

High on the winner list would be energy-intensive manufacturing, which has taken a thrashing the past few decades. "It could open the floodgates of investment in the U.S.," Wesbury said."